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August 2007
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October 2007

The Shift Goes On

We are in the midst of a major cultural shift, one of those 40-year generational changes.  (It’s important for context here that generations be viewed as time periods and not a group you were born into). 1963 was the year when western culture moved into an idealistic cycle.  You see it in the music, the arts, the technology, clothing, etc.  It takes about 5 years for the new ideas to really take off, as you can see from the explosion of racial conflict, anti-war demonstrations, rampant drug use, free sex, etc. from 1968 forward.

The year 2003 marks the tipping point from an idealistic generation into a civic generation.  Instead of just talking or singing about change like the last generation, this generation will be focused on doing something about it.  Plastic performances like Miss America and Britney Spears are in decline.  Real is in.  Relevant is essential.  Authentic is mandatory.  And this will only increase during the next 15 years.

In addition to this major cultural shift, in which the younger generation will teach the older generation a different way to look at the world, there is a major shift in media and technology that is providing the engine and the rails for progress.  Mass media is losing its mass.  Print is in decline, especially newspapers.  Television is fragmenting.  People are spending more and more of their time budget for media consumption online. 

To me, this is the most exciting time to be alive since I have been around, because great change breeds great opportunity.  Thus the birth of BizDreams.

An excellent article on this subject by Roy Williams.

Online Ad Spend Still in Infancy

According to a recent report by Marketing Sherpa, online ad spending (while growing at an impressive clip) is still dwarfed by more traditional offline methods.  For instance, paid search is running at about an $8 billion annual clip and other online advertising is about $4.5 billion annually.

The largest of all offline spends is direct mail with a spend of about $59 billion per year followed by newspapers at $30 billion and network TV at $25 billion.

Even the annual spend for Yellow Pages offline is nearly double paid search.

But there's the growth factor online.  "Online spending will surge to $18.9 billion by 2010--up about 59 percent from an estimated $11.9 billion this year, according to a report released Monday by Jupiter Research. But despite the uptick in online revenues, Web advertising will account for just 7 percent of all ad spending in 2010--compared to 5.6 percent this year, according to the report, "U.S. Online Advertising Forecast, 2005-2010.""