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February 2008

Is Hillary Caught in the Generational Shift?

059I've written before about the shift in our culture being caused by the 40-year cycle of generations.  Remember, a generation is a period of time, not a group of birth cohorts.  2003 was the tipping point from an idealistic generation to a civic generation.  In the sixth year of the transition we can expect to see stunning evidence of the massive cultural shift similar in many ways to 1968.

As a result of this shift in the way people view the world, things that used to work don't work any more.  Bill Clinton was perhaps the best campaigner of the previous generational cycle.  Now, those same techniques are not working any more and even Ted Kennedy is jumping to the Obama camp.  Obama is being seen as fresh and new, someone who gets it, and most importantly as someone who is not stuck in the "old ways."  In spite of her huge war chest and her enormous political experience, Hillary is being viewed as old guard, and with Super Tuesday looming she doesn't have much time to rebrand.  What worked for Bill won't work for Hillary.  It's a different day in more ways than most of us imagine.

At this point, I think the Republicans have little chance this year unless they nominate someone who won't be seen as stale dated.  In that regard it seems like Mitt Romney would be the best choice.  But choosing the candidate most likely to win the general election is not what the nomination process is about.

I'm not endorsing anyone, but it seems to me that Obama is in the best position to ride the wave of cultural change into the White House.  A question for you and your organization - "How can you catch this wave and be on top of it rather than under it?"

Lessons from Basketball

Page19_1 I love basketball.  I've played.  I've coached.  Most of all I've learned valuable lessons about life.          

1. Teamwork is a beautiful thing.  Skilled people who care about each other and who are dedicated to a common goal can accomplish incredible things.          

2. Peripheral vision is critical.  You have to see the whole floor in front of you with a good perspective on what's behind you.

3. The defense is always giving up something.  Find it and attack it.          

4. Game strategies and preparation are important. Adapting to the unexpected is critical.          

5. Michael Jordan's greatest and least recognized talent was his ability to make everyone else on his team better.

UK Internet Advertising to Top TV by 2009

058 The U.K. is to become the first major advertising economy to see online spending surpass traditional TV ads, according to forecasts by media buying agency Group M.

The report also states that online is set to overtake TV in Sweden within the next 12 months.

The U.K. has a higher percentage of public rather than ad-supported television which makes it different from the USA market.  So it will be some time before the Internet passes television here.  But with the growth of video ads online and mobile, the wave continues to swell.

The New Branding

Short but good article by Wizard Academy founder Roy Williams on The New Branding.

Roy was the first person to help me begin to understand the massive cultural shift we are experiencing today and why it was so predictable, at least in its macro elements.

As we start a new year it's good to remember this quote from a 2006 post -  General Eric Shinseki, former US Army Chief of Staff -

"If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less."

Thoughts on 2008

Rather than make New Year’s resolutions, I’ve opted to make predictions instead.  Resolutions require effort and accountability on my part, and any failure is ultimately personal.  But predictions, unless I am foolhardy enough to make any about myself, either happen or don’t happen independently of anything I do.  So whether an asteroid hits Mars or not, most people won’t remember and those who do will just view a miss as a bad guess, not a lack of personal discipline and willpower.

If you’ve read any previous posts about the generational cycles at work and the recent tip from an idealistic cycle into a civic cycle circa 2003, you will realize that 2008 is a significant year of potential upheaval, much like 1968 was for the idealistic generation.  So here are a few predictions for 2008 (actually they are guesses, but I have no hope of making the National Enquirer unless I label them predictions):

Continue reading "Thoughts on 2008" »