Over the past decade, we’ve seen significant changes in the way Americans watch television. The rise of streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime Video has led to a decrease in traditional cable and satellite TV subscriptions. So what changes can we expect to see in the next five years? Here are some trends to keep an eye on:

While online advertising fell overall in 2009, ad spend on online videos grew 41%.

And, with good reason.  Nielsen Research has recently released a report based on 14,000 surveys to measure the impact of video advertising online vs. video advertising on television. 

The patterns they uncovered were consistent:  video ads run during online full-episode TV programs yield deeper brand impact than corresponding on-air TV ads, with the difference most pronounced among younger viewers age 13-34.

"What accounts for this variation in impact between online video and traditional TV? Data shows that web video viewers are more engaged and attentive to the programs they are watching, which is likely a function of the viewing environment and the oft-required active mouse-clicking to initiate and continue content. Online video is also still a relative novelty compared to traditional forms of media.  Further, and most significantly, reduced ad clutter and the inability to easily skip ads are considerable recall-enhancing factors."

Another conclusion - "online video ads help to reinforce and strengthen the impact of a traditional TV campaign."

More data and analysis here.

If you are involved in any area of digital content production then you should take 36:34 of your time and view this talk by Jeff Jarvis (Buzzmachine) at the Video on the Net Conference.

Link to video

Link to Jeff's notes

You will understand better what is meant by "mass media is losing its mass."  You will also glean some great nuggets as to why video on the net is causing an explosion in television. 

Big media is no longer in control of the conversation.  For you, giving up control means gaining influence.  It's important you understand how to adapt to this dynamic cultural change.

Brilliant stuff, Jeff.

Thanks to Hugh at gapingvoid for the point.

Mark Cuban has an interesting post over at Blog Maverick on the differences between online video and television.

Snack or Meal?

There has been a near hysteria about online video since the YouTube phenomenon and the merger with Google.  It seems that ultimately the internet will become the repository of the majority of digital content.  There will be a convergence of screens as new devices allow people to access content on their computers and view it on their wall mounted flat screens.

There is continuing fragmentation of the video viewing audience.  Downloads to video iPods, YouTube, Google Video... but, there is not yet a mass movement of people who are watching traditional television programming online. More people  are watching video online, but as Cuban says, it's snacks and not meals.

Keep this in mind if you produce video for the web.  Shorter is generally better.  People online tend to go into Attention Deficit Syndrome and usually don't have the mindset to watch a 30-minute or longer program.  Produce for the medium.  Don't expect one edit of content to work across all platforms.  Good digital content producers must understand the medium and produce content that is friendly to the users of that medium.

I foresee a great need for video editors and online video producers who understand the differences between browser-based video and television.

"Santa was good to OfficeMax.

The company -- which is eschewing TV advertising entirely -- took what it would have spent to make three 30-second spots and created 20 holiday-themed microsites aimed at catching a viral wave and touting its stores as gift-giving destinations."

Article from AdAge.

This has to make Madison Avenue nervous.  The staple of big-money advertising for years has been the 30-second  television spot.  Make and average product for average people and pump sales with TV spots.  That has been changing gradually, but now the cultural shift seems to be picking up momentum in the advertising world. 

One great aspect to this change is the shift from the importance of the medium to the importance and salience of the message.  Take a look at television advertising.  Companies spend hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars producing a 30-second spot.  Most of them are not memorable.  But, until recent years even a non-imaginative spot that aired often enough would create a bump in sales.

There's a shift of power taking place in the world of communications, advertising and media.  It's a trend and not a fad.  Intrusive advertising is declining in favor of advertising that people want to watch.  Companies who get creative like Office Max will rise.  Those who stick with the old models will decay.

OfficeMax has made a bold move here to say "screw television, we're betting our future on the web."  It will continue to be an interesting story to follow.  And, you can count on plenty of others to try to mimic their success.

Yes, Bob Dylan, the times they are a-changin'.

I'm in Las Vegas this week at the annual NATPE (National Association of Television Production Executives) convention.  One of the big topics this year is delivery of digital content (especially video) to mobile devices.  Today, about 20% of the cell phones in the US have video capability.  Soon that will be 33%.

One of the problems in the mobile sector is the lack of good short-form creative content.  Viewing habits on cell phones tend to favor content that is only a few minutes in length, rather than full-length programming.  While users tend to expect content delivered via Internet to be free, there is precedent for people to pay for additional mobile phone content.  For example, people will pay $2.95 to download a Coldplay ring tone (when they can download the entire song legally for $.99). 

Revenues from delivery of video/TV to mobile devices generated about $123 million in 2006.  That figure is expected to grow to $4.3 billion by 2011.  Astounding growth predictions.

Meanwhile, with the introduction of the iPhone by Apple and a gaggle of new devices that were introduced at CES last week, the hardware in the marketplace is becoming even more video friendly.

Ultimately expect to be able to download video entertainment to your cell phone and be able to decide whether you want to view it on your phone, or via BlueTooth consume it through your television or computer monitor.

Two years ago the mobile market was discussed as still being future.  This year that future has arrived and is about to hit the steep slope of the growth curve.

Related articles -

Mobile TV Data Depicts Baby Steps of a New Media (Television Week)

Cowley speech kicks off mobile mart (Variety)

Here's a great article by Stephen King about the upcoming season for one of my favorite TV shows - 24.

Sounds like it's going to be as good as ever.

Adults and teens will spend nearly five months (3,518 hours) next year watching television, surfing the Internet, reading daily newspapers and listening to personal music devices. That’s only one of thousands of nuggets of information on Americana and the world in the U.S. Census Bureau’s Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2007.

According to projections from a communications industry forecast, people will spend 65 days in front of the TV, 41 days listening to radio and a little over a week on the Internet in 2007.   Adults will spend about a week reading a daily newspaper and teens and adults will spend another week listening to recorded music. Consumer spending for media is forecasted to be $936.75 per person.

US Census Bureau Press Release

From TechDirt -

"Instead of hiring professional concert documentary crews, a growing number of bands are handing the concert documentary process over to their fans, relying on amateur video to generate low-cost promotional material while increasing fan appreciation in the process. The Beastie Boys had some success with this idea recently..."

Article

Of course, this isn't the answer to most video production needs.  But it could be for some.  Be sure to take note of the need for a patient editor.

Interesting graph showing the satisfaction of television viewers before and after the acquisition of a DVR (digital video recorder like Tivo).  With this kind of love being expressed for the DVR experience, you have to expect that market penetration will continue to climb and that more and more ads will be skipped.  However, there is some evidence that recall is higher on ads that are "skipped".  The bottom line is that the way people are consuming television is being radically changed when they go DVR.  Understanding those changes is going to be key for digital content producers in the future.